By Bora Varliyagci, CEO, Digitalthings

Africa’s MVNO market has moved well past the experimental stage. Continent-wide estimates put it above USD 4 billion in 2025, and every reputable research firm points the same direction: accelerating growth, widening competition, and a structural shift in how mobile services are built and sold. The more important question is not how big the market is, but why certain models are winning decisively — and which sectors are next.

Why the bank-MVNO model is flying

Banks have emerged as Africa’s most formidable MVNO operators, and the reasons go well beyond brand trust. The structural advantage is distribution. Capitec Connect more than doubled its net income to R442 million in FY2026 — by converting ~1.5million active subscribers (90-day basis) from an existing base of verified banking clients. Connectivity lives inside the banking app, linked to rewards tied to banking activity. Mobile service becomes one more product anchoring the customer to the bank. South Africa’s other major banks have followed the same logic.

Kenya makes the counter-argument. M-Pesa, launched by Safaricom in 2007, drove financial inclusion from 26% to 84% by building a financial relationship from scratch — not deepening one — for millions who had no bank account at all. A telco can win in financial services without a banking head start — but it requires building trust first, and M-Pesa had 18 years to do it. Equitel, Equity Bank’s MVNO and the continent’s first 5G MVNO, holds less than 2% of Kenya’s mobile market despite a decade of operation, constrained by the ecosystem Safaricom built.

The convergence runs in both directions. Vodacom’s Group financial services revenue reached R16.8 billion in FY2026 — up 19.6% — with VodaPay at 14.1 million registered users in South Africa (and 103 million financial services customers across the Vodacom Group in FY2026 — up 17.4% year-on-year.). MTN’s MoMo platform meanwhile serves 69.5 million active users across Africa, with fintech revenue up 23.2% in FY2025. Both operators are using financial services to deepen subscriber relationships with the same logic banks use mobile — each additional product is one more reason to stay. The difference is the depth of the relationship when the cross-sell begins: a bank’s knowledge of a client’s income, credit history, and financial behaviour is a richer starting point than a mobile subscription. But as M-Pesa shows, the telco route can be equally powerful — and which model wins depends on the depth of the relationship each side has already built.

The field is widening

The bank playbook works for any organisation with a large, loyal customer base and a reason to deepen the relationship through connectivity. Grocery retail has moved fast: Shoprite K’nect Mobile, Pick n Pay Mobile, and Spar Mobile all reward shoppers with data linked to spend. Fashion retail, insurance, and education have followed — Stadio Connect launched in mid-2025 as South Africa’s first education-sector MVNO, zero-rating its own learning platforms so students can engage without consuming paid data.

Nigeria’s October 2025 entry of Vitel Wireless — trading as “Blue” — was a genuine milestone. But the broader picture is more sobering: only two of 46 licensed MVNOs are operational — Vitel and EmoSIM, a travel eSIM service. Industry stakeholders cite unfavourable wholesale rates, forex pressures, and MNOs’ market dominance as structural barriers. Nigeria’s MVNO story has started — it has not yet taken off.

The infrastructure debate that will define the next chapter

The commercial case for value-led MVNOs is settled. The more contested question is what that success costs the network infrastructure it depends on. MTN group CEO Ralph Mupita has warned that MVNO discount pricing risks replicating European market damage — MVNOs undercutting on retail while infrastructure costs remain with the host network[11]. Vodacom South Africa CEO Sitho Mdlalose adds that MNOs fund rural 5G rollouts that MVNOs benefit from without bearing capital costs. These are legitimate questions about whether wholesale pricing models adequately compensate the networks that make everything possible.

South Africa’s Electronic Communications Amendment Bill of 2026 aims to address this directly — formalising mandatory MVNO hosting, a “use it or share it” rule for idle spectrum, and cost-oriented wholesale pricing standards to be prescribed within 18 months of enactment. While the reform aims to close real gaps, how effectively it is enforced will determine whether the Bill delivers structural change or remains aspirational — a question South Africa will answer shortly, and one every other market on the continent is watching.

Africa’s MVNO story is accelerating. Its next chapter will be written by organisations that treat connectivity as infrastructure for deeper customer relationships — and by pricing frameworks that keep the networks supporting them worth investing in.

Written for MVNO Nation | May 2026

[1] 6Wresearch — Africa MVNO Market (2026–2032) (Updated February 2026) https://www.6wresearch.com/industry-report/africa-mvno-market

[2] I Capitec Bank Integrated Annual Report FY2026 —https://www.capitecbank.co.za/globalassets/pages/investor-relations/financial-results/2026/annual-report/integrated_annual_report_2026.pdf

[3] Capitec Bank — Hyper-Personalisation for Rewards / Annual Results FY2025 (2025) https://www.capitecbank.co.za/blog/news/2025/hyper-personalisation-for-rewards/ https://www.capitecbank.co.za/blog/news/2025/annual-results/

[4] OMFIF — M-Pesa Success Shows Importance of Competition in Payments (March 2024); KBC / Equitel Rolls Out 5G Across 370 Locations in Kenya (February 2024) https://www.kbc.co.ke/equitel-rolls-out-5g-network-in-370-locations/ https://techpoint.africa/2024/02/27/equitel-launch-5g-kenya/

[5] Vodacom Group Annual Results FY2026 — Financial Services Revenue R16.8bn (11 May 2026); MTN Group Annual Results FY2025 — MoMo 69.5 million active users, fintech revenue up 23.2% (March 2026) (11 May 2026) https://www.vodacom.com/pdf/investor/annual-results/2026/results-booklet.pdf

[6] TechCentral — Listed: All the MVNOs in South Africa — 2025 Edition (June 2025) https://techcentral.co.za/listed-all-the-mvnos-in-south-africa-2025/265354/

[7] TechCentral — South Africa’s Latest MVNO is Aimed at Students: Stadio Connect (June 2025) https://techcentral.co.za/south-africa-mvno-aimed-at-students/264952/

[8] Africa Business Communities / Nigerian Communications Week — Vitel Wireless Launches as “Blue”, Nigeria’s First MVNO (October 2025 / May 2026) https://africabusinesscommunities.com/tech-24/nigeria-finally-gets-its-first-mobile-virtual-network-operator/ https://www.nigeriacommunicationsweek.com.ng/vitel-wireless-partners-fintechs-to-expand-access-to-services/

[9] BusinessDay Nigeria, August 26, 2025: https://businessday.ng/technology/article/half-of-nigerias-mvnos-may-collapse-in-5years-stakeholders-warn/

[10] MVNO Index — MVNOs in South Africa: Lessons for Emerging Markets — Ajna Jalim (September 2025) https://mvno-index.com/mvnos-in-south-africa-lessons-for-emerging-markets/

[11] TechCentral — MVNOs Could Wreck SA’s Mobile Market, MTN Boss Warns (August 2025) https://techcentral.co.za/mvnos-could-wreck-sa-mobile-market-mtn/268817/

[12] https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/Bills/2026/B12-2026_Electronic_Communications_AB.pdf