by Allen Proithis, CEO, Capstone Partners, Inc.
MVNOs have been around for decades, serving a wide range of consumer and industrial use cases. Their recurring revenue streams and the growing criticality of always-on connectivity have never been more valuable — ask anyone who’s had a mini panic attack when their device loses signal for thirty seconds. But market evolution, adjacent technologies, and shifting M&A conditions have created an inflection point. Existing MVNO owners face some of the biggest strategic decisions of their careers.
The macro environment is providing a strong tailwind. The global M&A market set a new record in Q1 2026, surpassing $1.3 trillion in transactions according to Bloomberg. Despite geopolitical volatility, capital is moving. Most bankers I speak with are as busy as they’ve been since 2021. And that activity is flowing directly into this sector: Wireless Logic continues to build its position, Cubic secured a major $500M+ investment just over a year ago, Aeris has a PE backer, and Kore is restructuring its cap table and going private. Taken together, we’re talking about billions of dollars deployed into the MVNO space in a relatively short window.
So what’s driving this interest? I’d point to two converging forces: IoT maturity and the rise of physical AI.
IoT has quietly crossed a threshold. After decades of development, deploying connected devices no longer takes months or years. Sensors and end devices can be brought online quickly and cost-effectively across an enterprise. That de-risking and scale have unlocked significant capital. At the same time, “physical AI” — the idea that intelligence must be embedded in the physical world — only functions if everything is connected. You cannot efficiently connect a multinational operation without an MVNO. And AI, at its core, is nothing without data. It’s MVNO-enabled connectivity that generates the fluid, real-time data needed to feed modern AI systems.
Edge AI adds another layer. It makes little sense to route all data to a hyperscale cloud destination before any action is taken. MVNOs are uniquely positioned to aggregate data at or near the point of need — and increasingly, that first processing stop will be at the edge.
Finally, interest rates are forecast to fall below 6% in 2026. Every incremental rate reduction makes transactions cheaper to finance, unlocking deals that previously didn’t pencil out. With relatively few transactions completed over the past two to three years, both strategic acquirers and private equity firms are ready to move — and the macro environment is finally cooperating.
So back to the core question: what should an MVNO owner actually do — buy, sell, recap, or hold? The honest answer is that it depends on your vertical focus, scale, and business model. There is no universal playbook.
Join James Turino from Drakestar and me for an intimate conversation on exactly this topic at MVNO Nation in Miami on April 29th. We’ll dig into the strategic options, the deal structures worth knowing, and how to think clearly about your next move in a market that is finally moving again.
Allen Proithis is CEO of Capstone Partners, a strategic advisory firm serving investors, boards, and technology companies on growth strategy, market positioning, partnerships, M&A, and value creation across AI, private 5G, IoT, and connected infrastructure. A former CEO and business builder, Allen has a track record of helping companies navigate inflection points, scale commercial momentum, and position for strategic transactions.
Previously, Allen was CEO of GXC, a private equity- and venture-backed leader in private enterprise and industrial 5G networks. Prior to GXC, he was the founding President of Sigfox North America, where he built a high-performance team that established one of the leading IoT businesses in the market while expanding U.S. wireless coverage to more than 70 million people.
