GSMA Intelligence’s Pablo Iacopino kicked off MVNO Nation Live 2025 with an overview of the rise of the eSIM.

• Apple’s iPhone Air and China’s launch of commercial trials have delivered strong impetus to the eSIM market
• MVNOs stand to benefit from eSIMs but need to do more to promote the technology
• While awareness is high, especially among travellers, penetration of eSIMs remains low
• There is little evidence that eSIMs contribute to higher churn
• GSMA Intelligence expects the eSIM market to double in 2026

With mobile operators in general facing the realities of a mature market – which means intense price competition and pressure on margins – attendees at MVNO Nation Live’s opening presentation were keen to hear about the impact of a key technology shift with the potential to supercharge the MVNO model in particular – the emergence of the eSIM as a mass-market proposition. An MVNO with no need to ship and maintain physical SIMs stands to benefit from simpler onboarding of customers, lower operational costs, the flexibility to offer bundles for international roaming and faster launch times.

Pablo Iacopino, Head of Research and Commercial Content, GSMA Intelligence, opened the event with a brisk rundown of some of the key datapoints. While consumer eSIMs have been around for some time, Iacopino said in the course of his session, eSIM-Only is Now Global: what Does it Mean for the Mobile Industry, one big change in the months prior to MVNO Nation Live was Apple’s launch of its eSIM-only iPhone Air – its premium, ultra-lightweight phone – globally. Another was the extension of the number of countries in which the tech giant only offers eSIM phones to 12. (These are predominantly countries in North America – the US, Canada and Mexico – and the Middle East – Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – but the list also includes Japan.)

The second market-moving moment, said Iacopino, was the launch of commercial trials of eSIM smartphones immediately before MVNO Nation Live by China’s principal operators. (eSIMs had previously only been available in China for wearables and IoT applications.)

“Both [developments] are catalysts for consumer adoption of eSIMs,” said Iacopino. With industry heavyweight Apple being joined by China’s big manufacturers as a force driving eSIMs, it seems more likely than previously was the case that eSIMs are about to have their moment in markets outside the US.

Lack of promotion

Nevertheless, cautioned Iacopino, a lot of work still needs to be done to build consumer awareness and encourage adoption. MVNOs, he said, need to do more to promote the technology and need to think more about how eSIM innovation benefits them.

One factor potentially slowing down progress is ambivalence about the technology among MNOs. At the time of MVNO Nation Live 2025, said Iacopino, 69% of MNOs globally had launched eSIM services for smartphones, double the number two years prior. While growth had been slower in emerging markets, a bigger challenge was lack of promotion, he said.

“When we think about MNOs, there’s a big difference between commercialising an eSIM service and promoting it,” he said. “Only 8% of consumer who are aware of eSIMs discovered the technology through MNOs. That’s very low.”

While MNOs may be expected to be wary of over-promoting a technology that could pave the way for new players to take advantage of lower barriers to entry, MVNOs are understandably keen on eSIM technology. This is borne out by the data. According to GSMA intelligence, the number of MVNOs globally has doubled in the last 10 years to stand at around 2,100 by the time of MVNO Live, with 300 more players expected to launch services in the two years after the event – leading to a ration of 2.4 MVNOs to each MNO. Of those, over 600 MVNOs had launched eSIM services, including some 52 that were eSIM-only operators. “That’s a big commitment to eSIM,” said Iacopino.

Acceleration

Among consumers, meanwhile, awareness of eSIMs has been growing – but penetration remains low. Three out of five consumers were aware of eSIM, of which 54% are interested in using the technology. Interest is being driven primarily by travel eSIMs. Among travellers, said Iacopino, awareness was as high as 70%, of whom 60% were interested in using the technology. Many consumers who are among the naysayers either don’t understand how an eSIM works or don’t see the benefits, said Iacopino, indicating that there is work to be done to educate people.

While travel eSIM is a key application, with MNOs and (especially) global providers of roaming services commercialising them, global penetration of eSIM in the overall smartphone market stood at only 5%. The exception is the US, where penetration stood as high as 40% at the time of MVNO Nation Live, driven by Apple. “Now that eSIM-only is global and China has launched services, we expect an acceleration,” said Iacopino. “In 2026 we expect the market to double, with global penetration going from 5% to 10%. The big question is at what point eSIM will become bigger than the traditional removable SIM in terms of global connections?” By way of an answer, GSMA Intelligence predicts that eSIM will surpass traditional SIM penetration by 2030 with 55% of the overall market. However, said Iacopino, there will still be wide regional variations, with very high penetration in the US and low penetration in emerging markets.

Market impact

What is the impact of rising eSIM penetration on the overall market?

MNOs’ concern has been that rising eSIM use will mean rising churn as switching between service providers becomes simpler and subscriber acquisition costs for MVNOs drop. According to Iacopino, that fear is misplaced.

“eSIM on its own is not a driver of churn,” he said, arguing that an analysis of the US market – the only market where eSIM penetration is already very high – had shown that churn did not increase across prepaid and contract services when eSIM-only services launched.

Growth of the eSIM market should not therefore depend on unwarranted fears that it will result in users seeking to end contracts prematurely and jump around from one service provider to another. Instead, says Iacopino, the pattern of the evolution of the market will depend on several variables including how far Chinese OEMs push the technology and whether low-end eSIM phones will emerge to cater for the value segment of the market to complement the current focus on high-end ‘flagship’ devices. Other important factors that will play a role in shaping the market include the level of uptake of eSIMs for travel and how far and fast corporate buyers of phones adopt it.

Finally, said Iacopino, one use case that could drive adoption of eSIMs is the desire for on-demand connectivity – the provision of access to the mobile internet at mass-participation events such as concerts or sports matches.

This is one chapter from Beyond Connectivity: The Future of MVNOs, our eBook covering insights from MVNO Nation Live 2025.

Want the full picture? Download the complete eBook here

Want to be part of the conversation? Join us at MVNO Nation Europe 2026, 3-5 November in Alicante, Spain, where many of the voices featured in this eBook return to explore these themes in person.